China's metal box price trend in July

Reminder: The demand market for metal boxes fluctuated downward in July, and transactions may be dominated by rigid demand. Judging from the current supply and demand side, the supply pressure in the tinplate box market still exists, the release of terminal demand is limited, and the downstream orders are not followed up.

    In July, the metal box packaging market fluctuated and moved downwards, and transactions might be dominated by rigid demand. From the perspective of current supply and demand, the metal box packaging market still has supply pressure, terminal demand is limited, and downstream orders are insufficient to follow up. Tank manufacturers' inventory pressure is gradually emerging. Small and medium-sized manufacturers may lower their price expectations first, increasing the market's wait-and-see mentality.

    From the perspective of raw materials, raw material tinplate prices may first strengthen and then stabilize, but the overall price decline is limited, and prices may consolidate at a high level. Therefore, manufacturers have limited room for correction under the support of cost. With the gradual release of demand in August, the overall shipment sentiment is expected to improve, so the price of metal boxes may turn to an upward trend. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in September, terminal demand may increase, and downstream demand for stock replenishment is also available. However, due to the November holiday at the end of the month, most manufacturers flexibly adjust according to their own circumstances.

    There is a risk of falling prices in the metal box packaging market in July, and attention should be paid to changes in the price policy of large-scale manufacturers.

    First of all, judging from the current situation, the raw material inventory of manufacturers is slowly rising. Although it is still within a controllable range, small and medium-sized manufacturers have a clear mindset of letting profits promote transactions. They pay attention to the subsequent expansion of profits. Downward pressure on prices will increase.

    Second, demand is expected to recover slowly in July, but it is still difficult to achieve substantial improvement. The stalemate game situation of supply and demand is expected to continue. With downstream terminal orders still tepid, manufacturers will not rule out price cuts and inventory removal;

    Third, the price of imported tinplate in China has fallen as expected. If the price of finished metal shows a downward trend, China's domestic metal box manufacturers may slow down the import of tinplate.

    Fourth, the rising trend of scrap metal recycling prices is the main reason for the strong increase in metal box prices. Scrap metal recycling prices are expected to rise steadily in July, so there is a certain possibility that metal box prices will increase.

    On the whole, in July, metal box manufacturers are faced with the choice of maintaining profits or destocking. If metal box manufacturers choose to maintain profits, the transaction is expected to continue the supply and demand see-saw state. In August and September, as manufacturers' inventory pressure is released, the price of metal boxes will rise strongly, and the increase will depend on the follow-up of demand, which is expected to range from 9% to 23%.