China's corrugated paper packaging market develops steadily in 2021

From 2017 to 2021, the corrugated and containerboard paper market showed a trend of "stroke height-wide oscillation-accumulating upward power". In 2017, affected by the waste ban, the price of corrugated and containerboard paper once climbed, of which corrugated paper reached RMB 5,400/ Tons, the container board broke the 6000 yuan/ton mark, forming the ceiling of the container board market; prices fluctuated widely from 2018 to 2020, mainly due to Sino-US trade frictions and public health incidents.

Overview of Corrugated Paper and Boxboard Paper Market

In 2021, the corrugated paper and containerboard packaging market is in a stable development stage. With the commissioning of new projects by large-scale paper companies, the concentration of corrugated and containerboard paper production capacity will increase. From the perspective of supply and demand, corrugated and containerboard paper will be in 2021. The supply is slightly larger than the demand, and the supply pressure of cardboard paper is more prominent than that of corrugated paper. From 2022 to 2023, corrugated paper packaging will be put into focus, and supply pressure will continue to increase.

From the perspective of production characteristics, corrugated paper production enterprises are more dispersed than boxboard paper. Among them, most of the large-scale paper enterprises have the ability to produce corrugated and boxboard paper. China's largest paper company has a production capacity of nearly 20 million tons. Enterprises are located in coastal areas.

Analysis on the price trend of corrugated paper and box board packaging

In 2021, the corrugated paper packaging market will show a trend of "rising-falling-rising-falling", and the overall market is on the strong side. According to data monitoring by Zhuo Chuang Information: As of November 24, the average market price of 120g AA corrugated paper in China was US$388.2/ton, an increase of 18.47% year-on-year. Among them, the high point appeared in October at 449.4 US dollars/ton, the low point appeared at the beginning of the year at 347.4 US dollars/ton, the high and low price difference was 102 US dollars/ton, and the volatility reached 29.36%. The main factors affecting the price of paper are: First, the tight supply of raw materials drives up the cost. Secondly, the policy orientation of large-scale paper mills is obvious, which plays a guiding role in the direction of market prices. Thirdly, due to the repeated effects of global public health events, overall shipping will be tight in 2021, and ocean freight and foreign corrugated paper prices will increase, and packaging profit margins will decrease. As a result, fewer imports will have a smaller impact on China's domestic paper prices. Finally, 2021 is before the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan". The implementation of policies such as coal to gas, carbon neutrality, and carbon peaking are also important factors affecting the trend of paper prices.

In 2021, the containerboard paper market is trending in an "N" shape. According to the data monitoring of Zhuochuang Information: As of November 24, the average price of China's containerboard paper market was US$479/ton, a year-on-year increase of 16.97%. Among them, the high point appeared in November at 5348 yuan/ton, the low point appeared at the beginning of the year at 443 USD/ton, and the high-low spread was 91 USD/ton, with a volatility of 20.72%. Specifically, the containerboard paper market showed a strong upward trend in January and February-a downward trend after a sideways adjustment in March-a significant downward trend in April and September-a shock adjustment from September to September-an increase in strength in October-11 "Monthly high callback" operation trend. From January to February, the containerboard paper market is dominated by a pull-up. The main influencing factors are: First, the import of foreign waste is cleared. As the first year of 2021, the overall high-level market environment for raw materials is basically established; second, 1- In February, the scale of paper companies rose by 6-7 rounds, after the increase, the cardboard paper was about 490 US dollars/ton, which was a 50-60 US dollar/ton increase from the beginning of the year. The frequent and intensive price increases of large-scale paper companies have obviously stimulated the market's mentality of "buying up, not buying down". The replenishment progress was relatively fast in January and February, and the inventory of packaging factories rose to a relatively high level. Affected by the demand overdraft in March, after a period of sideways adjustment, the price of cardboard paper still cannot get rid of the drag of weak downstream demand. In April and May, the price is in a downward channel. After this round of destocking, the paper mills In response to the demand for higher paper prices to ensure profit, the price increase mode has been launched. Starting from May 13th, 6-7 price increases have been released. However, due to the low consumption season of demand, domestic and foreign demand are not ideal, the increase is more Due to the stalemate, June-September was basically in a state of supply-demand game. The overall market was dominated by shocks. In October, affected by factors such as energy raw materials and tight supply, the paper mills began to expand again. After a month of rapid growth, the market has now turned into a fast-declining market.

Corrugated paper packaging price trend forecast

Zhuo Chuang Information expects that the corrugated paper market will be strong in 2022, and prices may consolidate at a high level. The average price of corrugated paper market in 2022 will continue its upward trend compared with 2021. 2022 is the second year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", various policies and plans are gradually implemented, or the corrugated paper industry is rapidly upgraded to a green manufacturing system. In the first half of 2022, the corrugated paper market may show a trend of first rising and then slowing down. In the second half of the year, the corrugated paper market may fluctuate and move upward. Shows an increasing trend, which has a certain degree of restraint on paper prices.

In 2022, containerboard paper will continue to rise year-on-year, but the increase has narrowed. The main reason is that new capacity will continue to be mass-produced in 2022, and the supply side will increase, and the price of containerboard will continue to rise sharply under pressure. The main influencing factors affecting the containerboard paper market in 2022 are: 1.2021 The economy has steadily recovered in the first half of the year, and various data have performed well. Among them, export has a significant role in driving. 2. The cost of raw material waste paper is expected to continue to rise, but the marginal utility of less supply is gradually weakening, coupled with the successive commissioning of foreign recycled fiber pulp projects, the gradual improvement of the domestic waste paper recycling system, and the increase of domestic pulp projects. The supporting effect of raw materials will show a downward trend, but in the short term, there will still be a certain degree of bottom support. 3. The new production capacity is released, and the supply pressure is greater. Affected by factors such as market conditions, capital status and the overall economic environment at home and abroad, the commissioning of new projects has been slightly hindered. In addition, large-scale paper companies have relatively concentrated investment in containerboard paper projects, and the second half of 2022 will be the period of concentrated production from the second half of 2022 to 2023, and the supply pressure has increased significantly.